He managed to say everything and nothing when it came to specifics. And the range of the briefing to reporters has been pretty broad too.
You might have
caught the rather absurd spectacle of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt volunteering for
lengthy interrogations over the weekend, during which it felt like he started
every other answer with "you'll have to wait until Wednesday" or
words to that effect.
He managed to say
everything and nothing when it came to specifics. And the range of the briefing
to reporters has been pretty broad too.
From the
conversations I have had, plus what we are hearing and crucially not hearing,
both in public and in private, here's a sense of where we seem to be.
There are enough
kites flying about tax that I think we can be reasonably confident there will
be some tax cuts.
The Treasury has
let most of the speculation run. In other words, it hasn't gone out of its way
to dampen down some of it.
But I expect the
focus to be on business taxes - as cutting them is seen to be key to helping to
get the economy growing.
A cut in National
Insurance for the self-employed is seen by many as likely. Could there be a
wider cut to National Insurance?
And yes, the
Treasury has considered a cut.
As discussed on
the BBC's Newscast, cuts to inheritance tax can prove popular even among those
who are not likely to have to pay it.
But, it appears
the government might be having second thoughts about it, given the backlash
against the idea from some who say it would benefit the most well off.
Within the
Treasury, one of the merits of an inheritance tax cut is they believe it
wouldn't be inflationary.
They are obsessed
with ensuring that whatever they do doesn't contribute to higher inflation.
In fact we can
expect a splash of pride from the prime minister and the chancellor this week
that inflation has halved this year.
How they would
have loved to talk about this last week.
Much of the fall
in inflation is driven by factors beyond the government's control.
But it was,
arguably, the prime minister's most important promise at the beginning of the
year. And it has happened. They can at least point to things they didn't do
which would have made inflation worse.
The balance Rishi
Sunak and Mr Hunt have to pull off this week is to project a sense of economic
optimism and cut some taxes, but not fuel inflation. Not easy.
The last thing they
need is the Bank of England cancelling anything they do by jacking up interest
rates as a result.
A couple of other
things to watch out for: do benefits go up next April in line with September's
(higher) inflation figure, as is convention, or October's (lower) one? The
difference - as set out here by the Institute for Fiscal Studies - is big.
And does the
triple lock - which guarantees the state pension goes up by 2.5%, inflation or
wages, whichever is highest - take account of one-offs in wage packets or not?
If it does, it'll be more generous, if it doesn't, it won't. Let's see.
The crux of what
we will get is a government in trouble arguing that it and we have turned a
corner; things are looking up.
They will try to
argue that incentivising businesses to grow and rewarding work through tax cuts
are Conservative instincts at odds with what Labour would do.
Labour will point
out that the tax burden is higher than it's been in decades and that millions
feel poorer than they did five or ten years ago - and make the argument that
anything we hear from Mr Hunt won't change that.
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