Fox News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states

Poll: Kamala Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states. Explore the latest political shifts and what they mean for the 2024 election.

Harris Gains Ground Over Trump in Key Battleground States

 

Vice President Kamala Harris is showing a surprising edge over former President Donald Trump in four crucial battleground states, according to new Fox News polls. The surveys, conducted from August 23-26, reveal that Harris has improved on President Biden’s 2024 election numbers in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, driven by strong support among women, Black voters, and young voters.

 

The surveys find Harris narrowly leading Trump in three of the four states: by 1 percentage point in Arizona, 2 points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump holds a slim 1-point lead in North Carolina. These margins are within the surveys’ margin of error, indicating a very close race.

 

Key Demographics and Voter Preferences:

 

• Women, Black voters, and Young voters: Harris is benefiting from significant support among women (up by 11 points), Black voters (79% support), and young voters under age 30 (55% support).
• Hispanic Voters: Harris has garnered 56% of Hispanic voters, an improvement over Biden’s previous numbers.

Independents: Independents lean towards Harris by 6 points.

• White voters without a college degree and Rural voters: Trump maintains strong support among these groups, with 65% and 60% backing him, respectively.
• Harris’ Appeal as a Unifying Candidate: While Trump continues to lead on top issues like the economy and immigration, more voters perceive Harris as a candidate who can unite the country. Harris is also seen as someone who will "fight for people like you," with 50% of voters agreeing, compared to 47% for Trump.

 

Despite being the incumbent vice president, Harris is viewed as a candidate of change by 49% of voters, nearly equal to Trump’s 48%. This perception could be pivotal in swaying undecided voters as the campaign progresses.

 

Down-Ballot Races and Abortion Referendums:

 

• Democratic Candidates: In down-ballot races, Democrats are outperforming Harris by at least 5 points, indicating strong support for the party overall. For example, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 15 points in the Arizona Senate race.
• Abortion Referendums: In Arizona and Nevada, around three-quarters of voters favor ballot initiatives on abortion rights, with significant support even among Republicans.
• Poll Methodology: The Fox News Poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, included over 4,000 registered voters from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The margin of error for each state is ±3 percentage points, with combined results having a margin of error of ±1.5 percentage points.

 

This data highlights Harris' potential to expand the electoral map for Democrats, particularly in traditionally Republican-leaning Sun Belt states. As the 2024 election campaign continues, the race between Harris and Trump remains highly competitive, with both candidates battling to secure key demographic groups and swing states.