Kamala Harris Faces Tight Race in Swing States Despite National Poll Lead, CNN Data Reveals

Kamala Harris leads nationally but struggles in key swing states, raising concerns about her Electoral College chances

Kamala Harris Faces "Danger Zone" in Swing States Despite National Lead, Says CNN Data Reporter

 

Vice President Kamala Harris may be leading in national polls, but her position in critical swing states reveals a much tighter race that could jeopardize her chances of winning the Electoral College, according to CNN data reporter Harry Enten. During a segment on Monday, Enten highlighted the precarious state of Harris' polling in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

 

Although Harris holds a 2.5-point lead over former President Donald Trump in national polls, the story shifts dramatically in these seven key swing states. "Harris is only ahead by 0.3 points in these battlegrounds, which means the race is much tighter regionally than it appears on a national level," Enten explained to CNN's John Berman.

 

The tight margins in these states are cause for concern due to the mechanics of the Electoral College. Enten noted that if Harris wins the popular vote by just two to three points, her odds of securing the Electoral College are only about 53%. The crucial tipping point, according to Enten, is a three- to four-point margin in the national popular vote to have a more assured chance of winning the presidency. However, if she wins by less than two points, her chances drop to just 23%.

 

Harris' current odds of winning the popular vote stand at 70%, but her chances of winning the Electoral College hover around 50%, placing her in what Enten described as the "danger zone."

 

Enten also warned of the possibility of an Electoral College and popular vote split, similar to the elections of 2000 and 2016, where the candidate who won the popular vote lost the Electoral College. "Right now, there's about a 20% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College," Enten said, underscoring how unpredictable the race remains.

 

Despite Harris' gains in polling, especially in battlegrounds like Iowa, where she has narrowed Trump's lead to just four points, Enten cautioned that Trump remains a formidable opponent. "If you're a Kamala Harris fan and you're ready to celebrate, hold off. Trump is still very much in this race, and historical polling trends show he could close the gap in the final stretch," Enten remarked.

 

With the 2024 election approaching, Harris will need to expand her lead in the swing states to secure a victory in the Electoral College. As Enten put it, "The national polls showing her ahead don't matter much at this stage—it's the battleground states that will determine the outcome."

 

This polling data serves as a stark reminder that the race is far from over, with both candidates having a clear path to victory depending on how the swing states shift in the coming months.